Paul Merson has predicted Chelsea will once again miss out on a Champions League place as the Premier League top-four race intensifies. With Liverpool maintaining a commanding 13-point lead at the top and Arsenal likely to secure second for a third straight season, attention shifts to the battle for the remaining two spots. Just six points separate third from tenth, making the competition fiercer than ever.
Nottingham Forest and Manchester City currently occupy third and fourth, with Chelsea, Newcastle, Bournemouth, Brighton, Fulham, and Aston Villa in close pursuit. English clubs’ strong European performances this season could result in the Premier League gaining an extra Champions League slot, meaning a fifth-place finish might be sufficient for qualification.
Forest has shocked many by exceeding expectations under Nuno Espirito Santo, having been widely tipped for a relegation struggle. However, Merson remains unconvinced that they can sustain their form, suggesting that teams like Fulham and Aston Villa could still emerge as serious contenders if they string together a strong run of results.
Despite a turbulent season, Chelsea remains within reach of the top four. Merson highlighted that they were seventh in midweek and took advantage of a win against Southampton to climb further. With Forest set to face Manchester City, a Chelsea victory over Leicester could see them surpass their rivals. However, the Blues face a daunting set of fixtures that could derail their ambitions.
Chelsea’s final stretch of games includes crucial clashes with Arsenal, Tottenham, Fulham, Liverpool, Newcastle, and a significant last-day encounter with Forest. When asked which team could spring a surprise and break into the top four, Merson initially backed Bournemouth but changed his mind following their recent struggles.
Newcastle has now emerged as a likely candidate to challenge for a top-four finish. Sitting just three points off fourth, they have a realistic chance of overtaking Forest. Meanwhile, Chelsea’s form has plummeted under Enzo Maresca. Once considered title challengers in December, they have managed just three wins in their last eleven league matches, casting serious doubt over their ability to secure Champions League football.
Merson previously hinted that Maresca’s job could be at risk if Chelsea fails to beat Leicester next weekend. Before that, they must navigate a critical Conference League tie against FC Copenhagen. While Newcastle appears to be Merson’s new favorite to replace Forest in the top four, he acknowledges that the race remains highly unpredictable.
The unpredictability was further highlighted by Merson’s frustration with Opta’s supercomputer, which gave Fulham only a 0.99% chance of making the top four. With so many teams still in contention, Chelsea’s road to Champions League qualification looks more uncertain than ever.